While Republican House votes exceeded Democratic votes in more of the nation’s counties, Democratic counties tended to be larger in size, often in major urban areas. Of course, 2018 Democratic and Republican vote advantages differ across counties, as shown in Map 1. The nationwide D-R margin favored Democrats in both the 2016 presidential election (as Hillary Clinton won the popular vote over Donald Trump) and the combined national 2018 House of Representatives vote, with the Democratic advantage increasing between the former and latter election from 2.1 to 8.6 percent. Negative values indicate a Republican advantage.) More than four-fifths of 2018 voters reside in counties with rising Democratic support Positive values represent a Democratic advantage. (Note: the D-R margin is defined as the percent voting Democratic minus percent voting Republican among the all Democratic and Republican voters in the area. It examines changes in “Democratic minus Republican (D-R) voting margins” between these two elections at the county level in order to determine where and by how much Democratic support has shifted over this two year period. This analysis employs recently released county-based tabulations of the 2018 House of Representatives election voting results, along with results from the 2016 presidential elections 1. Moreover, at the state level, enough states flipped from Republican majorities in the 2016 presidential election to Democratic majorities in the 2018 House elections to project a 2020 Democratic Electoral College win.Ĩ3 percent of the voting population lived in counties where support for Democrats has improved since 2016 It occurred in suburbs, smaller metropolitan and rural counties, and most noticeably, in counties with concentrations of older, native-born and white residents without college degrees. This increased Democratic support was not confined to traditional Democratic base counties. Photos are from candidates’ campaigns, The Associated Press, Getty Images, Reuters and The New York Times.From this perspective, the Democratic wave is all encompassing: 83 percent of the voting population lived in counties where support for Democrats has improved since 2016. Ann Kirkpatrick, who won Arizona’s Second District, previously represented another congressional district.

Boyle will represent the state’s new Second District next year. Brendan Boyle currently represents Pennsylvania’s 13th District, which is most similar to the state’s new Fourth District, won by Madeleine Dean on Tuesday. Incumbents shown for Pennsylvania's congressional districts are those who held the seats that were closest to current district boundaries before redistricting in February, based on a New York Times analysis. Notes: Analysis is based on election results as of 11 a.m. Scores for seven female winners were not available. Scores are determined using a statistical method created by Adam Bonica at Stanford University, based on the ideological bent of a candidate's political donors. Sources: The Associated Press (election results and race calls) Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University (candidate data) Database on Ideology, Money in Politics and Elections (ideology scores).

Nytimes house elections 2018